ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت صحرای باغ لار

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای آب‌‌ و هواشناسی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران

3 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران

4 دانشیار گروه مهندسی احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

اهمیت تجزیه‌وتحلیل تغییر اقلیم در آینده و ارزیابی میزان تأثیرگذاری آن بر منابع آب زیرزمینی بسیار است. این پدیده در مناطقی که آسیب‌پذیری منابع آب آن­ها در وضع موجود زیاد است، ممکن است خسارت‌های چشم‌گیری در پی داشته باشد و زمینه­ی بیابانی‌شدن این مناطق را فراهم کند. در این پژوهش، روند تغییر تراز ایست‌آبی آب زیرزمینی دشت صحرای­باغ لارستان با به‌کارگیری داده­های 17 حلقه چاه مشاهده‌یی در بازه­ی زمانی 2016-2006 بررسی شد. به‌کارگیری آزمون نافراسنجی من-کندال، روندی در تراز معنی­داری 99% را نشان داد. محاسبه­ی شیب خط روند به روش تخمین­گر سن نیز نشان داد که تراز آب زیرزمینی دشت در این دوره به­طور متوسط 10/2 متر افت کرده است. از آن‌جا که کشاورزی اصلی­ترین مصرف‌کننده­ی منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت است، از وضعیت تعادل آب کشاورزی به روش بارش مؤثر (ER) برای ارزیابی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر تغییر تراز آب زیرزمینی استفاده شد. تغییر شاخص ER با خروجی­های مدل HadCM3 در بازه­ی زمانی 2099-2080 ارزیابی شد. بررسی­ها نشان داد که شاخص ER در حالت‌های انتشار A1B، A2 و B1 به ترتیب 73/2، 76/8 و 36/8 % افزایش خواهد یافت. این وضعیت باعث خواهد شد که کم‌بود کنونی آب در دشت صحرای­باغ در این دوره تشدید شود و روند افزایشی برداشت از سفره­های آب زیرزمینی که پی‌آمد آن افت‌کردن تراز آب زیرزمینی دشت است، باز هم ادامه یابد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Groundwater Resources in the Sahraye Bagh Plain, Lar

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abdolhossein Yousefi 1
  • Behrouz Nasiri 2
  • Mostafa Karampoor 3
  • Arash Malekian 4
1 Ph.D. Student Climatology, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Geography Group, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran Mostafa Karampoor Assistant Professor, Geography Group, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran
3 Assistant Profesor, Geography Group, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Engineering for the Restoration of Arid and Mountainous Regions Group, Tehran University, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

The analysis of climatic changes in the future and its impacts on groundwater resources is very important. This phenomenon, in areas where the vulnerability of the water sector is significant in the current situation, can cause considerable damages and provide a desertification setting in these areas. The trend of water table changes in Sahraye Bagh Plain,Larestan investigated by using the data from 17 observation wells during the 2006–2016 period. Using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test indicated the prosence of a trend at the significance level of 99%. Derivation of the trend line slope using the Sen estimator showed that the groundwater level of the plain was receding 10.2 m during the period, on the average. As the agricultural sector is the main consumer of the groundwater resources in the plain, the water balancesituation was predicted using the Effective Rainfall (ER) method to assess the climate change impact on observation water table changes. The  ER index changes were evaluated by the outputs of the HadCM3 model. The results showed that the ER index in the A1B, A2 and B1 diffusion scenarios will increase by 73.2, 76.8 and 36.8%, respectively. This situation will further the current shortage of water in the Sahraye Bagh Plain and aggravateduring the 2080-2099 period. The increasing trend of groundwater extraction will enhance the drop in the groundwater level if the current withdrawal continues unchanged.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • HadCM3 model
  • Mann-Kendall test
  • Sahraye Bagh Plain
  • water table

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 12 مرداد 1397
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 30 آبان 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 06 آذر 1397

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