ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت صحرای باغ لار

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای آب‌‌ و هواشناسی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران

3 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران

4 دانشیار گروه مهندسی احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

اهمیت تجزیه‌وتحلیل تغییر اقلیم در آینده و ارزیابی میزان تأثیرگذاری آن بر منابع آب زیرزمینی بسیار است. این پدیده در مناطقی که آسیب‌پذیری منابع آب آن­ها در وضع موجود زیاد است، ممکن است خسارت‌های چشم‌گیری در پی داشته باشد و زمینه­ی بیابانی‌شدن این مناطق را فراهم کند. در این پژوهش، روند تغییر تراز ایست‌آبی آب زیرزمینی دشت صحرای­باغ لارستان با به‌کارگیری داده­های 17 حلقه چاه مشاهده‌یی در بازه­ی زمانی 2016-2006 بررسی شد. به‌کارگیری آزمون نافراسنجی من-کندال، روندی در تراز معنی­داری 99% را نشان داد. محاسبه­ی شیب خط روند به روش تخمین­گر سن نیز نشان داد که تراز آب زیرزمینی دشت در این دوره به­طور متوسط 10/2 متر افت کرده است. از آن‌جا که کشاورزی اصلی­ترین مصرف‌کننده­ی منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت است، از وضعیت تعادل آب کشاورزی به روش بارش مؤثر (ER) برای ارزیابی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر تغییر تراز آب زیرزمینی استفاده شد. تغییر شاخص ER با خروجی­های مدل HadCM3 در بازه­ی زمانی 2099-2080 ارزیابی شد. بررسی­ها نشان داد که شاخص ER در حالت‌های انتشار A1B، A2 و B1 به ترتیب 73/2، 76/8 و 36/8 % افزایش خواهد یافت. این وضعیت باعث خواهد شد که کم‌بود کنونی آب در دشت صحرای­باغ در این دوره تشدید شود و روند افزایشی برداشت از سفره­های آب زیرزمینی که پی‌آمد آن افت‌کردن تراز آب زیرزمینی دشت است، باز هم ادامه یابد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Groundwater Resources in the Sahraye Bagh Plain, Lar

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abdolhossein Yousefi 1
  • Behrouz Nasiri 2
  • Mostafa Karampoor 3
  • Arash Malekian 4
1 Ph.D. Student Climatology, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Geography Group, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran Mostafa Karampoor Assistant Professor, Geography Group, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran
3 Assistant Profesor, Geography Group, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Engineering for the Restoration of Arid and Mountainous Regions Group, Tehran University, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

The analysis of climatic changes in the future and its impacts on groundwater resources is very important. This phenomenon, in areas where the vulnerability of the water sector is significant in the current situation, can cause considerable damages and provide a desertification setting in these areas. The trend of water table changes in Sahraye Bagh Plain,Larestan investigated by using the data from 17 observation wells during the 2006–2016 period. Using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test indicated the prosence of a trend at the significance level of 99%. Derivation of the trend line slope using the Sen estimator showed that the groundwater level of the plain was receding 10.2 m during the period, on the average. As the agricultural sector is the main consumer of the groundwater resources in the plain, the water balancesituation was predicted using the Effective Rainfall (ER) method to assess the climate change impact on observation water table changes. The  ER index changes were evaluated by the outputs of the HadCM3 model. The results showed that the ER index in the A1B, A2 and B1 diffusion scenarios will increase by 73.2, 76.8 and 36.8%, respectively. This situation will further the current shortage of water in the Sahraye Bagh Plain and aggravateduring the 2080-2099 period. The increasing trend of groundwater extraction will enhance the drop in the groundwater level if the current withdrawal continues unchanged.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • HADCM3 model
  • Mann-Kendall test
  • Sahraye Bagh Plain
  • Water table

Abbas Nejad A, Shahidasht W. 2013. Investigate the susceptibility of Sirjan Plain due to excessive withdrawals from the aquifer area. Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement. 7:85–96. (In Persian).

Akbari M. 2010 . Study of climate change effects on drought and desertification.Conference on the Application of Natural Geography in Environmental Planning. Koramabad. 971–982. (In Persian).

Alizadeh A. 2010. Applied Hydrology. Emam Reza University Press. Mashhad. 912 p. (In Persian).

Afifi M, Ghanbari A, Aghniaei D. 2015. Desertification in Sahraye Bagh. Piroozi Press. Tehran. 218 p. (In Persian).

Burn D, Elnur M. 2002. Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. Journal of Hydrology. 255: 107–122.

Cheshmi A. 2014. Assessment of climate change effects on groundwater resources using climatic indicators, SPI and NARX neural network (Case study: Ramhormoz Plain - Khuzestan Province).Water Resources and Development journal. 4:54–62. (In Persian).

Chobin B, Malekian A, Gharechahi H. 2012 . Investigate the trend of time variation of the surface water table in a dry biomass (Case study: Aspas Plain). Journal of the Desert Ecosystem Engineering. 1(1):39–55. (In Persian).

Daneshvar Vosoughi F, Dinpazhooh Y, Aalami M, Ghorbani M. 2012. Trend analysis of groundwater using non-parametric methods. Civil Engineering and Environment Journal. 40:13–23. (In Persian).

Ekrami M, Sharify Z, Malekinezhad H, Ekhtesasy M. 2011. Changes in the quality and quantity of groundwater resources Yazd-Ardekan Plain. Journal of Toloo-e-Behdasht. 1(2–3): 82–92. (In Persian).

Eslamian S, Khordadi M, Abedi Koupai J. 2011. Effects of variations in climatic parameters on evapotranspiration in the arid and semi-arid regions. Global Planet Change. 78:188–194.

IPCC. 2007. The physical science basis / Contribution of Working Group 1 to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change. Cambridge. UK. New York. USA. 24–57 p.

Kardavani P. 2014. The problems of water in iran. Tehran University Press. Tehran. 420 p. (In Persian). 

Kendall M. 1975. Rank correlation methods 4th ed. Charles Griffin: London.

Khaleghi N. 2015. Comparison of effective rainfall stimation method in agriculture. Journal of Water and Sustainable Development. 2(2):51–58. (In Persian). 

Khosravi M, Esmaeilnezhad M, Nazaripoor H. 2010.Climate change and its impact on middle eastern water resources.Proceedings of the Fourth International Congress of the Islamic World Geographers. Zahdan. (In Persian).

Kuo-Chin H, Wang C, Chen K, Chen C, Ma K. 2010. Climate-induced hydrological impacts on the groundwater system of the Pingtung Plain, Taiwan. Hydrogeology Journal. 15: 903–912.

Mahdavi M, Taherkhani M. 2012. Applied statistical analysis in geographical researches. Ghomes Press. 420 p. (In Persian). 

Mann H. 1945. Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica. 13: 245–259.

Mohammadi H. 2011. Arid climatology. Tehran University Press. Tehran. 293 p. (In Persian).

Rahman M, Islam M, Hasanuzzaman M. 2008. Study of Effective Rainfall for Irrigated Agriculture in South-Eastern part of Bangladesh. World Journal of Agricultural Science. 4(4): 453–457.

Rahmani M, Jami Alahmadi M, Shahidi A, Hadizade Azghadi M. 2015. Effects of climate change on length of growth stages and water requirment of wheat and barley (Case study: Cirjand Plain). Journal of Agriculture. 7(4):1–16.

Randal D, Wood R, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla A, Srinivasan J, Sstouffer RJ, Sumi    RJ, Taylor KE. 2007. Climate models and their evaluation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC. UK: Cambridge University Press.

Razaghmanesh M, Salemi T, Seraj M. 2006. Assessment of groundwater quality and quantity of Tabriz Plain. National Conference on Irrigation and Drainage Networks. Ahwaz. (In Persian).

Regional Water Company of Fars. 2014. Study of Sahraye Bagh Plain. (In Persian).

Rezaei Banafsheh M, Jalali Ansaroodi T, Zarghami M, Asghari Moghaddam A. 2015. Investigate of climate change impacts on groundwater level in Tasuj Basin by statistical downscaling method. Iran-Water Resources Research. 11:106–116. (In Persian).

Sen P. 1966. Estimate of the regression coefficients based on Kendall,s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 63: 1379–1389.

Shaemi Bozorgi A, Habibi Nokhandan M. 2009.Global warming Biological and ecological consequences. Tarjemane Kherad Press. Tehran. 214 p. (In Persian).

Shrestha S, Bach T, Pandey V. 2016. Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Resources in Mekong Delta. Environmental Science & Policy. 61:1–13.

Tavosi T. 2009. The Processes and Consequences of Desertification. Journal of Geographic landscape. 4(9):121–137. (In Persian).

Zamani R, Abdollahi Asadabadi S, Mirabasi Najafabadi R. 2014. Hydrometeorological parameters analysis of four Major dam in southwest of Iran.Geographical Studies of Arid Regions Journal. 5(18):55–75. (In Persian).

Zareian M, Eslamian S, Safavi H. 2016. Investigating the effects of sustainability of climate change on the agriculture warer consumption in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin. Journal of Water and Soil. 20(75):113–127. (In Persian).