بررسی خشک‌سالی هواشناختی و آب‌‌‌‌‌‌شناختی با استفاده از نمایه‌‌‌‌‌‌های SPI، SDI و PNI در استان کردستان

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسنده مسوول واستادیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری. دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی. دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد سنندج. کردستان. ایران

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع طبیعی_ آبخیزداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد سنندج، کردستان، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد سنندج، کردستان،ایران

4 استادیار پژوهشی بخش تحقیقات حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان فارس، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش، کشاورزی،شیراز،ایران.

چکیده

خشک‌سالی یکی از پدیده‌‌‌‌‌‌های مخرب زیست‌‌‌‌‌‌محیطی است که باعث بروز خسارت‌‌‌‌‌‌های زیادی به منابع طبیعی و زندگی انسان‌‌‌‌‌‌ها شده است. استان کردستان، تأمین‌‌‌‌‌‌کننده‌‌‌‌‌‌ی بسیاری از محصولات کشاورزی کشور است؛ بنابراین، خشک‌سالی در این استان، اهمیت بسیاری دارد. از داده‌‌‌‌‌‌های بده‌ی 23 ایستگاه آب‌‌‌‌‌‌سنجی و بارش 7 ایستگاه‌‌‌‌‌‌ سینوپتیک در بازه‌‌‌‌‌‌ی آماری مشترک 29ساله (1392-1364) استفاده شد. برای محاسبه‌‌‌‌‌‌ی خشک‌سالی هواشناسی از نمایه‌ها‌‌‌‌‌‌ی SPI و PNI، و برای خشک‌سالی آب‎شناختی از نمایه‌‌‌‌‌‌ی SDI در مقیاس زمانی سالانه بهره برده شد. نتایج آزمون من‌‌‌‌‌‌کندال و تایل‌‌‌‌‌‌سن نشان‌‌‌‌‌‌دهنده‌‌‌‌‌‌ی روند خشک‌سالی هواشناسی در ایستگاه‌‌‌‌‌‌های سنندج، مریوان، قروه، زرینه و سقز بودند؛ بررسی این آزمون با کاربرد نمایه‌‌‌‌‌‌ی SDI نیز نشان‌‌‌‌‌‌دهنده‌‌‌‌‌‌ی روند نزولی در همه‌‌‌‌‌‌ی ایستگاه‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌های آب‌‌‌‌‌‌سنجی، به‌جز ایستگاه‌‌‌‌‌‌های آب‌‌‌‌‌‌سنجی سنته‌‌‌‌‌‌خورخوره، قشلاق، قبقلو و بیار است. نتایج نشان دادند که خطای جذر میانگین مربعات برای نمایه‌‌‌‌‌‌های SPI، PNI و SDI به‌ترتیب 0/41، 0/49 و 0/47، و ضریب تبیین 0/65، 0/50 و 0/59 است؛ بنابراین نمایه‌‌‌‌‌‌ی SPI عمل‌کرد بهتری را داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Survey Using the SPI, SDI and PNI Indices in The Province of Kurdistan

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Zolfaghari 1
  • Nilofar Babaeian 2
  • Golaleh Ghaffari 3
  • Seyed Masoud Soleimanpour 4
1 Assistant professor. Watershed management engineering. Islamic azad university. Sanandaj. Kurdestan. Iran.
2 sanandaj.
3 Assistant professor, watershed management engineering,islamic azad university, sanandaj,iran
4 Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Fars Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Drought is one of the most destructive environmental phenomena that causes extreme damages to the natural resources and human lives. As the Province of Kurdistan supplies many agricultural products in the country, the occurrence of drought is very important and that is the main reason behind the execution of this study. The data of twenty-three hydrometric and seven synoptic stations were used in a 29-year common statistical period (1985-2013). To calculate the meteorological drought, the SPI and PNI indices, and for the hydrological drought, the SDI index were used at the annual time scale. Results of the Mann-Kendall and Thilson tests indicated the existence of a trend for the meteorological drought at Sanandaj, Marivan, Ghorveh, Zarrineh and Saqez Stations. Also, the running of this test on the SDI index indicated a downward trend in all of the hydrometric stations, except for the Sentin Khorokhoreh, Ghashlagh, Qeblv and Meyar stations. Results also showed that the root mean square error for SPI, PNI, and SDI were 0.41, 0.49 and 0.47, and the coefficient of determination (R2) were 0.65, 0.51 and 0.59, respectively. Therefore, the SPI index is the best function among these three.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • drought
  • Mann-Kendal test
  • trend of changes

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 06 بهمن 1396
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 26 آبان 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 07 آذر 1397

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